Vincenzi: 6 Course-Fit Picks for the John Deere Classic

Vincenzi: 6 Course-Fit Picks for the John Deere Classic

Click arrow to expand 2022 John Deere Classic odds via WynnBet

2022 John Deere Classic Odds

Golfer Odds
Webb Simpson +1200
Adam Hadwin +1800
Sahith Theegala +2200
Charles Howell III +2500
Denny McCarthy +2800
Jason Day +3300
Maverick McNealy +3300
Adam Long +3500
Brendon Todd +3500
Christiaan Bezuidenhout +3500
Nick Hardy +3500
Patrick Rodgers +3500
Scott Stallings +3500
Cam Davis +4000
Steve Stricker +4000
J.T. Poston +4500
Adam Schenk +5000
Anirban Lahiri +5000
C.T. Pan +5000
Cameron Champ +5000
Chez Reavie +5000
Doug Ghim +5000
Lucas Glover +5000
Adam Svensson +5500
Kevin Streelman +5500
Taylor Pendrith +5500
Martin Laird +6000
Alex Smalley +6600
Dylan Frittelli +6600
Emiliano Grillo +6600
John Huh +6600
Lanto Griffin +6600
David Lipsky +7000
Tyler Duncan +7000
Mark Hubbard +8000
Nate Lashley +8000
Nick Taylor +8000
Patton Kizzire +8000
Ryan Armour +8000
Andrew Putnam +9000
Christopher Gotterup +9000
Hank Lebioda +9000
Zach Johnson +9000
Austin Smotherman +10000
Joseph Bramlett +10000
Matt Wallace +10000
Matthias Schwab +10000
Michael Thompson +10000
Ryan Moore +10000
Stephan Jaeger +10000
Kramer Hickok +11000
Brandon Wu +12500
Chad Ramey +12500
Chesson Hadley +12500
Hayden Buckley +12500
James Hahn +12500
Lee Hodges +12500
Rory Sabbatini +12500
Sam Ryder +12500
Scott Piercy +12500
Taylor Moore +12500
Ben Martin +15000
Brandt Snedeker +15000
Brice Garnett +15000
Callum Tarren +15000
Charley Hoffman +15000
Chase Seiffert +15000
Doc Redman +15000
Grayson Murray +15000
Greyson Sigg +15000
Kevin Chappell +15000
Scott Brown +15000
Vaughn Taylor +15000
Vince Whaley +15000
Bill Haas +17500
Peter Malnati +17500
Robert Streb +17500
Andrew Novak +20000
Brian Stuard +20000
Harry Higgs +20000
Jonathan Byrd +20000
Justin Lower +20000
Kelly Kraft +20000
Sean O’Hair +20000
Trey Mullinax +20000
Wesley Bryan +20000
William McGirt +20000
Henrik Norlander +22500
Andrew Landry +25000
Austin Cook +25000
Brian Gay +25000
Cameron Percy +25000
David Lingmerth +25000
Fabian Gomez +25000
Paul Barjon +25000
Roger Sloan +25000
Scott Gutschewski +25000
Chris Stroud +27500
Aaron Baddeley +30000
Ben Kohles +30000
Brandon Hagy +30000
Camilo Villegas +30000
Chris Naegel +30000
D.J. Trahan +30000
Dylan Wu +30000
Jim Knous +30000
Kevin Tway +30000
Mark Hensby +30000
Michael Gligic +30000
Satoshi Kodaira +30000
Sung Kang +30000
Seung-Yul Noh +35000
Brett Drewitt +40000
David Skinns +40000
Jason Dufner +40000
Seth Reeves +40000
Bo Hoag +50000
Curtis Thompson +50000
David Hearn +50000
Dawie van der Walt +50000
Jared Wolfe +50000
Jonas Blixt +50000
Joshua Creel +50000
Martin Trainer +50000
Max McGreevy +50000
Nick Watney +50000
Patrick Flavin +50000
Quinn Riley +50000
Richy Werenski +50000
Robert Garrigus +50000
Shawn Stefani +50000
Ben Crane +75000
Bo Van Pelt +75000
Boo Weekley +75000
Charles Jahn +75000
D.A. Points +75000
Greg Chalmers +75000
Johnson Wagner +75000
Matt Every +75000
Nathan Petronzio +75000
Preston Stanley +75000
Ricky Barnes +75000
Ryan Brehm +75000
Arjun Atwal +100000
Brian Davis +100000
Derek Ernst +100000
John Merrick +100000
John Senden +100000
Kevin Stadler +100000
Luke Gannon +100000
Omar Uresti +100000
Parker McLachlin +100000
Richard S. Johnson +100000
Ryuji Imada +100000
Sean McCarty +100000

After an exciting week of golf at the Travelers Championship, the PGA TOUR makes one final stateside stop before the Open Championship at TPC Deere Run to play the John Deere Classic. Last year, we saw Lucas Glover capture his first win in more than a decade by firing a final-round 64 to claim victory.

TPC Deere Run is a 7,268-yard par 71 located in Silvis, Ill., in the Quad Cities area. The course historically fails to present a major challenge to golfers with easy-to-hit fairways and bentgrass greens. Most players will have short approach shots into the greens, and the event often turns into a bit of a putting contest.

The John Deere Classic will play host to 156 golfers and, as expected, the field is considerably weaker than we have gotten used to this season. After a long run of top-tier events, many of the world’s top players are taking the week off before heading to Ireland or the United Kingdom — or they’re already playing the Irish Open this week.

A few of the notable golfers who will make the trip to the Midwest include Webb Simpson, Jason Day, Adam Hadwin, Denny McCarthy and Sahith Theegala.

Past Winners at The John Deere Classic

  • 2021: Lucas Glover (-19)
  • 2019: Dylan Frittelli (-21)
  • 2018: Michael Kim (-27)
  • 2017: Bryson DeChambeau (-18)
  • 2016: Ryan Moore (-22)
  • 2015: Jordan Spieth (-20)

5 Key Stats For TPC Deere Run

Let’s take a look at five key metrics for TPC Deere Run to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds.

1. Strokes Gained: Approach

Strokes Gained: Approach is historically the most predictive statistic at TPC Deere Run.

It’s a relatively short course with extremely wide fairways. Lack of distance off the tee will not be a major hindrance to golfers since the majority of approach shots will allow for a short iron or wedge onto the green.

SG: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. C.T. Pan (+21.1) (+5000)
  2. Cameron Davis (+16.6) (+4000)
  3. Vaughn Taylor (+13.6) (+16000)
  4. Nick Taylor (+11.8) (+7500)
  5. David Lipsky (+11.5) (+7000)

2. Birdie or Better: Gained

Scores can get extremely low at TPC Deere Run as the course will offer plenty of birdie opportunities. Twelve of the 18 holes on the course historically average under par.

Birdie or Better: Gained Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Chad Ramey (+13.8) (+4000)
  2. Scott Brown (+11.7) (+900)
  3. Nate Lashley (+11.4) (+7000)
  4. Kevin Chappell (+11.4) (+14000)
  5. Peter Malnati (+11.2) (+17500)

3. Par 4: 400-450

With five par 4s on the course in this range, it will be crucial for golfers to play these holes well.

Par 4:400-450 Past 24 Rounds:

  1. Patrick Flavin (+13.6) (+30000)
  2. Lanto Griffin (+12.7) (+6000)
  3. Adam Svensson (+11.9) (+5500)
  4. Aaron Baddeley (+10.9) (+25000)
  5. Alex Smalley (+10.7) (+6600)

4. Proximity 125-150

Approach shots measuring between 125 and 150 yards are very common at TPC Deere Run. This event is likely to turn into a wedge-fest, so whoever is dialed in with their wedges will give themselves a chance to win.

Proximity 125-150 Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Matthias Schwab (+10.7) (+10000)
  2. Lucas Glover (+9.2) (+4500)
  3. Rory Sabbatini  (+8.7) (+12500)
  4. Brian Stuard (+8.1) (+17500)
  5. Max McGreevy (+7.7) (+45000)

5. Strokes Gained: Putting (Bentgrass)

With green in regulation percentages definitively higher at TPC Deere Run than the average TOUR stop, the winner will likely be determined by who can catch the hottest putter.

SG: Putting (Bentgrass) over Past 24 rounds

  1. Patrick Rodgers (+20.9) (+3000)
  2. Christiaan Bezuidenhout (+18.2) (+3500)
  3. Jim Knous (+17.6) (+30000)
  4. Brandt Snedeker (+16.0) (+14000)
  5. Johnson Wagner (+15.4) (+75000)

The John Deere Classic Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the six key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: App (27%), Birdie or Better (22%), SG: Putting Bent (19.5%) Par 4: 400-450 (15.8%), and Prox: 125-150 (15.8%).

  1. C.T. Pan (+5000)
  2. Adam Schenk (+5500)
  3. Brendon Todd (+3300)
  4. Lanto Griffin (+6000)
  5. Justin Lower (+17500)
  6. Scott Stallings (+3000)
  7. Mark Hubbard (+9000)
  8. Adam Hadwin (+1600)
  9. Cameron Davis (+4000)
  10. Mark Hubbard (+12500)

2022 John Deere Classic Best Bets

Cameron Davis (+4500, BetRivers)

Cam Davis is a player who has the skill set I am targeting at TPC Deere Run this week. In the field, he ranks 17tin Strokes Gained: Putting on Bentgrass and third in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach.

The Australian had some stretches last week at the Travelers where it looked like he was going to contend deep into the weekend and some other stretches where he struggled mightily. While the poor play at times was a bit of a concern, it wasn’t as important as what he showed when he was playing well.  In a weak field, we are betting on the ceiling of Davis.

The 27-year-old has already proven he can win on TOUR and won at this time last year. It may not seem like it at first glance, but Davis offers us relative value in this field.

Chez Reavie (+5500, BetRivers)

Reavie comes to the John Deere Classic quietly playing some very good golf. He has four top-27 finishes in his past five starts, including an eighth-place finish at last week’s Travelers Championship.

The 40-year-old is gaining an average of 3.7 strokes from tee to green in his past five events. In many ways, Reavie is a similar to player to Lucas Glover (who won this event last year). He is a strong iron player who is good with a wedge. If he can gain a few strokes putting instead of losing strokes to field as he typically does, he is super live to win at TPC Deere Run.

Cameron Champ (+6600, BetRivers)

It’s more likely than not that Cameron Champ plays horribly this week. He’s missed four consecutive cuts and has had a pretty disappointing year overall. However, if you play this event 50 times, I feel very confident in saying that Champ wins at least once. Therefore, there is relative value in betting the 27-year-old this week.

Since Champ has arrived on the scene in 2018, he’s already accumulated three PGA TOUR victories. “Win equity” is a term I often use in these articles, and Champ is a great example of a golfer who finds a way to win more often than his odds tend to indicate.

Yes, there’s a good chance he struggles this week. But there’s also a chance he gains eight strokes putting and wins the tournament.

Chesson Hadley (+15000, DraftKings)

Chesson Hadley used an excellent Sunday to catapult him to a top-5 finish at the Travelers Championship. His excellent round of 64 was one shot shy of the low round of the day, and it’s within the realm of possibility that he can use the momentum to propel him into contention at the John Deere Classic.

In the past, we’ve seen hot putters propel golfers to victory at TPC Deere Run. Hadley is a player who is capable of gaining an absurd number of strokes with the putter when he has it going.

The John Deere Classic is one of the few spots on the schedule where journeymen have been able to get it done and is as good of a spot as ever to end Hadley’s nine-year winless streak on TOUR.

Brandon Wu (+15000, DraftKings)

Brandon Wu is a golfer whose ceiling I believe in long-term. Since his second-place finish at the Mexico Open, he’s been quite disappointing, but this is a tournament where I believe in taking chances of golfers with a high upside.

The Stanford product has loads of talent. He won the 2020 Korn Ferry Tour Championship and beat out many players in this field in doing so.

This is a low risk, high reward bet on a golfer who is still developing on the PGA TOUR.

Hayden Buckley (+15000, DraftKings)

Hayden Buckley is another golfer who is on the rise. He finished 14th in the U.S. Open, proving he has what it takes to compete on the PGA TOUR.

In an event where I feel as though most any player in the field is live to win, it’s a good opportunity to bet a young up-and-comer in hopes that his ceiling comes to fruition against a weak field.

#Vincenzi #CourseFit #Picks #John #Deere #Classic

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